Rural Mainstreet Index Falls Below Growth Neutral Again Conflict in Iran Creating Significant Volatility in Ag Sector

March 2026 Survey Results at-a-Glance:
-The overall RMI dropped below growth neutral for March to its lowest level since October 2025.
Weakness in the farm sector is spilling over into the business community with approximately 27.2% of bankers reporting that small businesses in their area were experiencing declines in business activity.
-After falling below growth neutral for January and February, the March farm and ranchland index rose to 50.2 from 45.5 in February.
-The 2026 conflict in Iran has created significant volatility in the agricultural sector, primarily impacting agricultural equipment sales, with the index falling below growth neutral for the 31st straight month.
-More than half, or 52.4%, indicated no change or declines in delinquency rates, with 47.6 percent reporting that loan delinquency rates increased modestly.
 
OMAHA, Nebraska (March 19, 2026) — According to the latest monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) dropped below growth neutral for March to its lowest level since October 2025.

Overall: The region’s overall reading for March plummeted to 40.9 from February’s 47.9. This marks the 13th time since January 2025 that the index has moved below the growth neutral threshold. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Weakness in farm commodity prices and elevated agriculture input costs are spilling over into the business community. Approximately, 27.2% of bankers reported that small businesses in their area were experiencing declines in business activity,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Farming and ranchland prices: After falling below growth neutral for January and February, the March farm and ranchland index rose to 50.2 from 45.5 in February. “Farm and ranchland prices have been holding up much better than farm income,” said Goss.

Jim Eckert, Executive VP and Trust Officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Illinois, reported that “Recent rains in our area have improved farmers' moods, but subsoil moisture is very low, and timely rains will be needed to raise the 2026 crops.”

According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, increased by 3.0%. However, compared to the first month of 2024, the regional export of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2026 sank by 20.5%.

Farm equipment sales: The March farm equipment sales index increased to a very weak 28.6 from 16.7 in February. “This is the 31st straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. “The 2026 conflict in Iran has created even more volatility in the agricultural sector, primarily impacting agricultural equipment sales by tightening farmer operating margins, increasing input costs and shifting farmer planting decisions,” said Goss.

Banking: The March loan volume index soared to 78.6 from February’s 54.3. The checking deposit index climbed to 64.3 from 60.9 in February. The region’s index for certificates of deposits (CDs) increased to 52.4 from 50.0 in February.  

Despite weak farm income, farm loan delinquency rates remained well contained with more than half, or 52.4%, indicating no change or even declines in delinquency rates, with 47.6% reporting that loan delinquency rates increased modestly.

Hiring: The new hiring index for March increased to 49.9 from February’s 49.1. Job gains for non-farm rural employers have remained soft for the last several months. “In March, 27.3% of bankers reported small businesses in their area were contracting, with 68.2% remaining stable and only 4.5% indicating small business expansion,” said Goss. 

According to Jeff Bonnett, CEO of Havana National Bank in Havana, Illinois, “The communities we serve are totally dependent on the Ag economy. That said, our small businesses on Main Street are suffering along with our grain producers. We are now in our fourth year of tough local economic times due to this sustained downturn in the Ag economy.”

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The March confidence index plunged to 29.5 from 45.8 in February, which was the highest reading since March 2022. “In spite of $12 billion of federal farm support, weak grain prices, higher input prices and expected negative farm cash flows continued to weigh on banker confidence,” said Goss.

Home and retail sales: March home sales advanced to 54.5 from 43.2 in February. Regional retail sales improved slightly to 43.2 from 42.1 in February.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and the late Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.

Below are the state reports:

Colorado: The state’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) for March dropped to 40.1 from 47.0 in February. The farm and ranchland price index for March improved to 49.5 from February’s 44.9. The state’s new hiring index increased to 49.4 from 48.5 in February. According to trade data from the ITA, Colorado exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, fell by 53.6%. Compared to the first month of 2024, the Colorado exports of agriculture and livestock for the first month of 2026 sank by 5.6%.

Illinois: The state’s March Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank to 39.1 from 45.8 in February. The farm and ranchland price index for March climbed to 48.3 from February’s 43.8. The state’s new hiring index for March rose to 48.1 from February’s 47.3. According to trade data from the ITA, Illinois exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, fell by 25.0%. Compared to the first month of 2024, the Illinois exports of agriculture and livestock for the first month of 2026 sank by 50.2%.

Iowa: March’s RMI for the state sank to 39.7 from 46.5 in February. Iowa’s farm and ranchland price index for March rose to 51.0 from February’s 44.4. Iowa’s new hiring index for March advanced to 48.7 from 47.9 in February. According to trade data from the ITA, Iowa exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, expanded by 108.4%. Compared to the first month of 2024, the Iowa exports of agriculture and livestock for the first month of 2026 climbed by 44.3%.

Kansas: The Kansas RMI for March declined to 40.3 from 47.2 in February. The state’s farm and ranchland price index climbed to 49.6 from February’s 45.1. The new hiring index for Kansas increased to 49.5 from 48.7 in February. According to trade data from the ITA, Kansas exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, expanded by 118.3%. Compared to the first month of 2024, the Kansas exports of agriculture and livestock for the first month of 2026 climbed by 47.9%.

Minnesota: The March RMI for Minnesota dropped to 42.2 from February’s 49.4. Minnesota’s farm and ranchland price index rose to 52.1 from 47.2 in February. The new hiring index for March increased to 52.2 from 51.4 in February. According to trade data from the ITA, Minnesota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, expanded by 0.5%. However, compared to the first month of 2024, the Minnesota exports of agriculture and livestock for the first month of 2026 sank by 16.0%.

Missouri: The March RMI for the state decreased to 45.3 from 53.0 in February. The farm and ranchland price index for March improved to 55.9 from February’s 50.7. The state’s new hiring gauge for March rose to 55.6 from February’s 54.7. According to trade data from the ITA, Missouri exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, fell by 21.4%. Compared to the first month of 2024, the Missouri exports of agriculture and livestock for the first month of 2026 sank by 39.8%.

Nebraska: The state’s Rural Mainstreet Index for March fell to 38.4 from 45.0 in February. The state’s farm and ranchland price index for March advanced to 52.8 from 43.1 in February. Nebraska’s new hiring index climbed to 47.3 from 46.5 in February. According to trade data from the ITA, Nebraska exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, fell by 1.6%. Compared to the first month of 2024, the Nebraska exports of agriculture and livestock for the first month of 2026 sank by 10.1%.

North Dakota: The state’s overall RMI for March decreased to 40.0 from 46.9 in February. The state’s farm and ranchland price index for March rose to 48.8 from 44.2 in February. The state’s new hiring index climbed to 49.2 from 48.4 in February. According to trade data from the ITA, North Dakota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, fell by 36.2%. Compared to the first month of 2024, the North Dakota exports of agriculture and livestock for the first month of 2026 sank by 45.9%.

South Dakota: The March RMI for South Dakota sank to 40.3 from February’s 47.2. The state’s farm and ranchland price index expanded to 49.9 from 45.2 in February. South Dakota’s March new hiring index improved to 49.5 from 48.7 in February. According to trade data from the ITA, South Dakota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, fell by 82.2%. Compared to the first month of 2024, the South Dakota exports of agriculture and livestock for the first month of 2026 sank by 39.9%.

Wyoming: The overall RMI for Wyoming for March slumped to 39.4 from February’s 46.2. The March farm and ranchland price index rose to 48.8 from 44.2 in February. Wyoming’s new hiring index increased to 48.4 from February’s 47.6. According to trade data from the ITA, Wyoming exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, expanded by 56.1%. Compared to the first month of 2024, the Wyoming exports of agriculture and livestock for the first month of 2026 soared by 629.2%.